Rubber Meets The Road Economics: Exploring the forces shaping our economy

27. Are Tariffs About to Disappear? The Economic Signals to Watch

Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton of the University of Virginia to break down the most pressing economic issues of the moment: the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting, the meaning behind falling short-term rates and stubborn long-term rates, the fragility of today’s housing market, and whether the U.S. has already slipped into a debt spiral.
Professor Burton also uncovers what’s really happening with global currency dynamics, the potential end of the current tariff regime, and the likely trajectory of inflation in 2026. The episode closes with a frank look at artificial intelligence — what AI is genuinely good at, what’s overpromised, and whether the massive capital pouring into AI represents a bubble.
If you’re trying to understand inflation, interest rates, tariffs, national debt, or how AI fits into the bigger economic picture, this episode offers rare clarity.
Episode Breakdown
The Fed’s Next Move
Why falling two-month Treasury yields reveal the Fed’s likely rate decision
How recent money-supply actions signal a shift in policy
Why mortgage rates remain elevated despite easing in short-term yields
Housing Market Pressures
Why supply remains artificially constrained
When homeowners may begin listing again
Expectation for national home-price behavior over the next few years
The U.S. Debt Spiral
Why both spending and taxation have reached political limits
How U.S. debt compares to historical sustainability thresholds
Why entitlement structures create long-term structural pressure
Global Currency and Trade Dynamics
The declining share of global payments conducted in dollars
How tariffs have strained relationships with European and Asian partners
Why political and legal pressures may force a shift in U.S. tariff policy
Artificial Intelligence: Hype and Reality
What AI is truly good at — and where its abilities plateau
Why AI won’t replace scientific intuition or discovery
How overinvestment could trigger the next tech-sector correction
Whether the S&P 500 would look dramatically different without AI enthusiasm
Investor Takeaways
Why staying in broad index funds remains a sound long-run strategy
What rising consumer weakness means for the next two years
How to think about volatility ahead
Professor Edwin T. Burton has been a cornerstone of the University of Virginia’s Department of Economics since 1988, where he has taught more third- and fourth-year students than anyone in the department’s history. A graduate of Rice University and Northwestern University, he brings both academic rigor and real-world fluency to the study of financial markets, behavioral finance, and monetary policy.
Widely known for making complex economic ideas accessible, Professor Burton’s classes at UVA have launched generations of students into careers in finance, analytics, and policy. His dedication to mentorship runs so deep that the department’s undergraduate career office was renamed the Edwin T. Burton Economics Career Office in his honor — a testament to the impact he’s had on thousands of young economists.
Beyond the classroom, Professor Burton is a sought-after commentator on issues like inflation, tariffs, and global debt dynamics, helping audiences understand how large-scale economic forces shape everyday financial realities. His mix of clarity, candor, and grounded insight makes him a trusted guide through the noise of economic news — and an ideal guest for conversations that ask what today’s headlines really mean for investors.
 
Disclaimer
The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend that you consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.

26. Tariffs, Trade, and Truth: The Real Economics of U.S.–China Relations

In this episode, investor Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton of the University of Virginia to discuss the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, its implications for interest rates, and what the Fed can — and can’t — control. Professor Burton offers his signature mix of sharp humor and deep economic insight as he unpacks the paradox of record-breaking stock markets amid mass layoffs, explores historical lessons from the 1929 crash, and shares his contrarian view on U.S.–China trade.
Episode Breakdown
00:00–02:30 – The Federal Reserve’s Next Move
Professor Burton predicts a 25-basis-point rate cut and explains why the Fed is often following — not leading — the market.
02:30–06:30 – The Stock Market Paradox
While the economy remains weak for many Americans, the S&P 500 keeps setting records. Burton explains how a handful of tech giants are driving the illusion of prosperity.
06:30–11:30 – Lessons from 1929
Burton takes us back to the Great Depression, connecting historical monetary mistakes with today’s overexpansion of the money supply.
11:30–21:00 – Tariffs and China
A candid, controversial take: Burton argues that tariffs weaken American competitiveness and that trade with China is beneficial for both economies.
21:00–24:00 – Predictions and Final Thoughts
Hunter tests Burton’s track record on Federal Reserve predictions — and hears a hilarious confession about Burton’s stock-picking history.
Guest Bio
Professor Edwin T. Burton is a Professor of Economics at the University of Virginia, known for his expertise in financial markets, monetary policy, and behavioral finance. He is a sought-after commentator on the Federal Reserve, market trends, and U.S. fiscal policy. With a distinguished academic and professional background, Professor Burton blends academic rigor with real-world insight in every conversation.
Connect with the Show
Email: rubbermeetstheroadeconomicspod@gmail.com
Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts to stay updated on the latest economic insights.
Disclaimer:
The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend that you consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.
 
Produced by Awkward Sage Media.

25. Is Artificial Intelligence Masking an Economic Slowdown?

In this episode of Rubber Meets the Road Economics, investor Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton from the University of Virginia to break down the economic realities behind the AI boom.
While tech companies are pouring billions into artificial intelligence, the rest of the economy is slowing — a trend masked by massive capital expenditures in data centers, chips, and defensive spending. Professor Burton explores whether AI is truly creating value or simply inflating numbers, what hidden distress can be found in recent bankruptcies, and how high interest rates and chaotic tariff policies are reshaping business realities.
They also discuss the Fed’s upcoming decisions, the power of the repo market, and why inflation may be sticking around longer than policymakers hope.
Episode Highlights
The U.S. economy is weakening, except for the AI sector.
Much of AI investment is “defensive” spending, not innovation.
Inflated earnings depend on AI capitalization that may not be sustainable.
Tariff unpredictability is wreaking havoc on global trade.
The repo market, not the Fed funds rate, determines real monetary movement.
Stagflation may already be here — inflation persists even as growth slows.
Europe faces similar challenges as France struggles with deficits.
The global economy continues to depend heavily on U.S. dollar dominance.
Guest Bio
Professor Edwin T. Burton is a distinguished economist, investor, and professor at the University of Virginia. His work bridges academic insight and real-world market behavior, with deep expertise in monetary policy, investment strategy, and financial market structure. Professor Burton is known for his clear, candid approach to explaining complex economic issues — and for being unafraid to question the consensus.
Relevant Links
University of Virginia Department of Economics: https://economics.virginia.edu
Federal Reserve Meeting Calendar: federalreserve.gov
Disclaimer
The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend that you consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.

24. Markets, Rates, and Recession Signs: Professor Burton’s Fed Preview

Investor Hunter Craig sits down with University of Virginia economist Professor Edwin Burton to break down the latest economic signals as the Federal Reserve heads into a pivotal meeting. With the S&P 500 topping 6,600 and Treasury yields hovering around 4%, the professor explains why he expects a 25-basis-point rate cut—and why a 50-point cut would create messy arbitrage opportunities.
They also cover:
The Fed’s balance-sheet strategy and how selling Treasuries actually raises rates
Slow U.S. GDP growth (1.3% annualized for the first half of 2025) and what it means for small businesses
Why declining consumer spending and speculative investment trends point toward a possible recession
The reality behind crypto and AI hype—and why valuations may tumble
Warren Buffett’s “five-minute fix” for the national deficit and why it may be too late
Professor Burton offers a candid view of the U.S. economy’s next moves and why caution may be the smartest investment.
Guest Bio
Professor Edwin T. Burton is a renowned economist and long-time faculty member at the University of Virginia. Known for his clear, incisive analysis of markets and monetary policy, Professor Burton has authored influential works on interest rates and investment strategy and is a frequent commentator on national economic issues.
Disclaimer
The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend that you consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.

23. The Fed, Inflation, AI Spending, and America’s Debt Reckoning

In this Labor Day conversation, investor Hunter Craig and University of Virginia economist Professor Edwin Burton break down the latest forces shaping the U.S. economy. With the September 17 Federal Reserve meeting looming, the discussion covers where rates are headed, the real limits of Fed power, and the political tug-of-war over central bank independence.
 
Professor Burton also shares sharp insights into America’s mounting deficit, the shaky ground under AI-driven capital expenditures, and why tariffs act more like a sales tax than a growth policy. From inflation trends to Warren Buffett’s blunt solution for Congress, this episode delivers clarity on issues that impact us all.
 
Key Topics:
Why the Fed is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points at the September 17 meeting
The misunderstood limits of Federal Reserve power and its reluctance to overuse the balance sheet
Central bank “independence”: myth, politics, and global cautionary tales
U.S. consumption and investment spending — and what they signal for growth
The AI capital boom: Porsche-level hype or Honda-level utility?
Why today’s equity valuations echo dot-com era bubbles
Tariffs as sales taxes and their hidden cost to American households
Why the U.S. deficit cannot be solved by “growing our way out”
Warren Buffett’s simple (but unlikely) fix for Congressional overspending
 
Guest Bio:
Professor Edwin T. Burton is Professor of Economics at the University of Virginia and a former partner at Rothschild, Inc. He has also served on the faculties of Cornell, Princeton, and the University of Chicago. His expertise spans financial markets, the Federal Reserve, and economic policy.
 
Disclaimer:
The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend that you consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.

22. The $40 Trillion Question: Can America Avoid an Economic Meltdown?

In this sobering and thought-provoking episode, investor Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin Burton of the University of Virginia to unpack the harsh economic realities we face as the national debt approaches $40 trillion. Together, they cover everything from university research incentives to runaway entitlement spending, inflation, and the limits of Federal Reserve intervention. With a mix of wit, clarity, and no-nonsense economic insight, Professor Burton breaks down the problems that no one in politics seems willing to fix—and offers practical advice for protecting your financial future.
In This Episode:
How university funding and research grants may be contributing to economic waste
The misaligned incentives behind academic research and tenure
Why inflation may be the only solution politicians turn to
The real drivers of federal debt: Medicare, Medicaid, and Social SecurityProfessor Burton’s unfiltered take on healthcare spending and political stalemates
Market outlook for the second half of 2025 and why the S&P might not reflect realityStrategies for surviving inflation and preserving wealth through hard assets
Guest Bio:
Professor Edwin T. Burton is an emeritus professor of economics at the University of Virginia. Over the course of his 50+ year academic career, he has taught at multiple universities and is known for his deep expertise in finance, macroeconomics, and public policy. His insights cut through the noise to provide clear-eyed perspectives on America’s most urgent economic challenges.
Call to Action:
Liked what you heard? Subscribe to Rubber Meets the Road Economics and share this episode with someone who wants to understand the real drivers of our economy. For questions or comments, email us at rubbermeetstheroadeconomicspod@gmail.com.
Disclaimer:
The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend that you consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.

21. Are Tariffs Just Sales Taxes in Disguise?

In this episode of Rubber Meets the Road Economics, Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton to unpack one of the most pressing economic topics of our time: tariffs. With political posturing, trade wars, and rising costs dominating the headlines, Professor Burton breaks down why tariffs are effectively a regressive sales tax that hits consumers the hardest — especially those with lower incomes.
The conversation doesn’t stop at trade. Professor Burton also dissects recent inflation data, challenges the Fed’s narrative on expected inflation, and explains why the central bank’s actions don’t always align with market reality. From the politics of trade policy to the mechanics of interest rates and monetary supply, this is a conversation rich with insight and sharp critique.
In This Episode
Why tariffs act like a national sales tax—and who really pays for them
How proposed tariffs are impacting U.S. allies and trading partners
Why the narrative that “China pays” for tariffs is economically incorrect
What inflation data is really telling us (hint: it’s not what the media says)
The flaw in the Fed’s reliance on “expected inflation”
What the money supply reveals about real inflation drivers
Why interest rates aren’t as controlled by the Fed as many think
Professor Burton’s take on Powell’s leadership and policy timing
What historical examples teach us about inflation and money printing
Guest Bio
Professor Edwin T. Burton is a renowned economist and professor emeritus at the University of Virginia. With decades of experience in academia, finance, and government policy, Professor Burton is known for his candid, data-driven perspective on fiscal and monetary policy. His work often challenges conventional narratives and focuses on the deeper forces shaping the global economy.
Key Links
Learn more about Professor Edwin T. Burton: University of Virginia Faculty Page 
Connect with the show: Email us at rubbermeetstheroadeconomicspod@gmail.com
Financial Disclaimer
Disclaimer:
The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend that you consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.

20. Is a Recession Inevitable? Why the Warning Signs Are Mounting

As the S&P 500 hits record highs and inflation cools, you might think the U.S. economy is cruising. But Professor Edwin T. Burton returns to Rubber Meets the Road Economics with a more sobering take: the real warning signs are hiding in plain sight. In this episode, Professor Burton explains why the yield on the two-month Treasury is a more reliable predictor of Fed action than market sentiment—and why he thinks the economy may be heading toward a recession. He breaks down the pressures on U.S. debt markets, explains how AI might shift the labor force, and makes a compelling case for watching the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, not just their statements. If you want to understand what’s coming in the second half of 2025, this episode is essential listening.
 
Episode Breakdown:
Why inflation may already be “last year’s story”
What the 2-month Treasury yield reveals about the Fed’s next move
How foreign investors are retreating from U.S. debt—and why that matters
Why interest rates may stay high, even in a recession
The limits of artificial intelligence as an economic fix
Arbitrage explained: how institutional players respond to Fed policy
Predictions for Q3 and Q4 2025: weak consumer spending, fragile housing, persistent debt pressure
How to think critically about AI’s impact on jobs, investment, and productivity
 
Guest Bio:
Professor Edwin T. Burton is Professor of Economics at the University of Virginia, where he has taught for nearly four decades. A respected voice in both academic and financial circles, Burton’s career spans roles as a Wall Street economist, a financial strategist, and a sought-after commentator on monetary policy. He is known for his clear, no-nonsense analysis of complex economic systems and his ability to connect high-level financial trends to everyday realities. 
 
Call to Action:
Like what you heard? Be sure to subscribe and leave a review wherever you get your podcasts. For listener questions or topic suggestions, email us at: rubbermeetstheroadeconomicspod@gmail.com.
 
Disclaimer:
The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend that you consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.
 

19. Uncertain Times Ahead: The High Stakes of America's Economic Policies

 In this crucial episode, Hunter Craig speaks with Professor Edwin T. Burton about the alarming implications of recent U.S. tariff policies, market volatility, and America's mounting debt crisis. Professor Burton provides candid insights into why he believes markets have further to fall, the inherent dangers of current tariff strategies, and the troubling decline in foreign investment in U.S. Treasury auctions. Tune in for an eye-opening discussion about the true costs of tariffs, the urgent need for increased American savings, and actionable alternatives to avoid economic turmoil.
Episode Breakdown:
Why the stock market is poised to decline further
The direct impact of Trump's tariff policies on markets
Historical parallels and lessons from past economic crises
The weakening of foreign participation in U.S. debt markets
The urgent need for a higher American savings rate
Misconceptions about U.S.-China trade dynamics
Potential consequences if U.S. interest rates rise significantly
Critical assessment of recent Treasury auction performances
The escalating dangers of America's ballooning national debt
Solutions for sustainable economic policies and debt management
Guest Bio: Professor Edwin T. Burton is an esteemed economist at the University of Virginia with decades of experience in financial markets, economic policy, and international trade. Known for his straightforward, pragmatic analysis, Dr. Burton has educated numerous influential figures in finance and remains an authoritative voice in economic forecasting and policy critique.
Connect with us! We want to hear your thoughts and questions about the economy.
Disclaimer: The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend consulting with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Investing and financial decisions carry risks; always conduct your own research.
Call to Action: Subscribe today and stay informed about critical economic trends impacting your future.

18. Economic Shockwaves: What You Need To Know About The Impact Of Tariffs

In this episode, Professor Edwin Burton joins Hunter Craig to discuss the recent implementation of tariffs by the U.S. government and their far-reaching effects on the economy. They delve into who truly bears the cost of tariffs, the unprecedented market reactions, and the potential long-term consequences for both domestic and international financial landscapes.
Episode Breakdown:
Introduction: Overview of current economic climate and introduction to the topic of tariffs.
Tariffs Explained: Discussion on who pays tariffs and their intended versus actual effects.
Market Reactions: Analysis of the unusual market responses following tariff announcements.
International Implications: Examination of how other countries are responding and the potential global economic impact.
Historical Context: Comparison to past economic events and policies, including the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act.
Conclusion: Final thoughts on the future of the economy in light of current policies.
Relevant Links:
U.S. Treasury Secretary’s Statement on China and Treasuries
Howard Marks on the Risks of the Trade War
Axios on Global Investment Shifts Due to Tariffs
Professor Edwin T. Burton is a seasoned economist and former Wall Street executive with decades of experience analyzing economic trends. As a professor at the University of Virginia, he bridges academic knowledge and practical expertise to shed light on complex economic topics. His optimism and deep understanding of historical and modern economics make his insights invaluable to listeners.
 
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. Always consult with a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
Call to Action:
Stay informed on economic policies and their real-world implications. Subscribe to Rubber Meets the Road Economics and join the conversation on how these changes affect you.